کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5099482 1377010 2010 20 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات کنترل و بهینه سازی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks in the coefficients of economic relationships which allows them to be driven by large past economic shocks. The breaks generated by these shocks can be taken to reflect stochastic changes in agents' decisions or beliefs triggered by extraordinary economic events. Our model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic. The last property of it enables us to investigate qualitative effects that large shocks can have on economic relationships. As an empirical application of our model, the paper investigates the stability the oil-economy relationship since the early sixties. From the six large oil-shocks identified by our data, the paper shows that only the first oil shock at the end of 1973 has caused a major long term adverse effect on economic activity. All the large oil price shocks that have happened since then did not have any significant negative effects on the slope of the oil-economy relationship.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 34, Issue 3, March 2010, Pages 417-436
نویسندگان
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