Do interest rates drive inflation dynamics? An analysis of the cost channel of monetary transmission

This paper proposes a novel approach to empirically assessing the impact of the cost channel of monetary transmission on the dynamics of inflation within a New Keynesian Phillips curve framework. According to the cost channel, higher interest rates translate into higher marginal costs of production and, eventually, into higher inflation. We exploit the present-value implications of the model to derive a series of fundamental inflation that is contrasted with actual inflation. We show that the cost channel adds significantly to the explanation of inflation dynamics in forward-looking sticky-price models for the US, the UK, and the Euro area. Moreover, the cost channel can explain inflation episodes that cannot be accounted for by the standard New Keynesian model.