کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5100012 | 1377073 | 2006 | 21 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
کنترل و بهینه سازی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
We argue that in practice, the inflation-targeting strategy can be approximated by the interest rate responding to the unchanged-interest-rate forecast of inflation. A method is developed to derive unchanged-interest-rate forecasts in forward-looking models and evaluate the performance of the policy rule in an optimizing New Keynesian model due to Monacelli (European Central Bank, Working Paper Series: 227), estimated on UK data. We find that the policy rule is less prone to generate a determinate rational expectations equilibrium if based on an unchanged interest rate, compared to the rule-consistent forecast. Both rules approximate the optimal commitment policy if the central bank attaches sufficient weight to inflation as opposed to output gap stabilization. The optimal forecast-feedback horizon is close to a year and a half and is largely independent of how much the central bank prefers inflation to output gap stability.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 30, Issue 3, March 2006, Pages 393-413
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 30, Issue 3, March 2006, Pages 393-413
نویسندگان
Kai Leitemo,