کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5100963 | 1479081 | 2016 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
نظریه ریسک رونق، توقف ناگهانی و ذخایر خارجی
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Emerging economies have accumulated very large foreign reserve holdings since the turn of the century. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in endogenously reducing debt rollover crises (“sudden stops”) by allowing governments to be solvent in more states of the world. Using a dynamic multi-country environment with learning, we find that a relatively small unanticipated increase in rollover risk jointly accounts for (i) the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, (ii) the increase in foreign reserves holdings, and (iii) the subsequent reduction of sudden stops in emerging economies. We also show that a policy of pooling reserves may substantially reduce reserves because mutual insurance across countries dampens rollover risk.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of International Economics - Volume 103, November 2016, Pages 44-63
Journal: Journal of International Economics - Volume 103, November 2016, Pages 44-63
نویسندگان
Sewon Hur, Illenin O. Kondo,