کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5102906 | 1480102 | 2017 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
فیزیک ریاضی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR â(susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) epidemic spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 471, 1 April 2017, Pages 114-125
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 471, 1 April 2017, Pages 114-125
نویسندگان
Natasha Sharma, Arvind Kumar Gupta,