Political ecology of climate change: Shifting orchards and a temporary landscape of opportunity

As the global climate and local weather patterns change, the apple belt of the state of Himachal Pradesh in the Indian Himalaya has been migrating to higher elevations. Kinnaur District has experienced rising affluence over the last two decades driven by its growing apple economy, the rapid expansion of which may not have been possible without climate change. As the climate continues to change, new opportunities and risks are emerging. Forests and pasturelands that were once uncultivable and least accessible are gradually becoming preferred land for orchards, while some older, lower elevation orchards are experiencing lower productivity. This paper observes the role that climate change has played in shifting patterns of agricultural production, driving land use change - both enabling and threatening Kinnaur's current 'Golden Era.' Lessons may be learned from detailed attention to the specific circumstances under which climate change is beneficial or detrimental. The findings of this qualitative ethnographic research suggest that for Kinnaur, climate change has had net favorable consequences thus far. Balanced against these climate-related gains are also emerging risks - increasing pests and diseases, declining productivity of lower elevation orchards, soil depletion, and over-dependence on a single source of livelihood. As the climate and markets continue to change, they may not favor Kinnauri apple growers in the long term. Without thoughtful planning, this current window of opportunity could be squandered. Good land stewardship and livelihood diversification might make the Kinnauri economy more sustainable.