Assessing farmers' perceptions about climate change: A double-hurdle approach

Drawing from insights of the behavioural decision research, this study applies a double-hurdle (DH) estimation technique to assess social-psychological factors influencing the likelihood of perceiving climate risk and, given positive perception, the perceived patterns of climate change (CC) among farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The model employs survey data collected from 352 small-scale farmers, 68% of whom had recognized CC, as indicated by perceptions of abnormal weather. Dominant perceptions are analysed using a principal component analysis technique and appraised based on meteorological records. The results point to higher probabilities of perceiving climate risk among farmers who experience more emotive mental imagery and those with stronger egalitarian values. The results further suggest that farmers who perceive CC based on affective impression and direct personal experience are more likely to suffer cognitive bias in their perceptions compared to farmers who perceive climate risk based on knowledge and analytic processing of climate information. Based on these findings, recommendations for effective CC communication policy are outlined.