Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan

Results show farmers' income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2 °C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency.