کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5115313 | 1484876 | 2017 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves and their uncertainties for Ghaap plateau
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
منحنی فرکانس شدت و شدت بارش و عدم اطمینان آنها برای فلات غاف
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کلمات کلیدی
منحنی فرکانس شدت-مدت زمان بارش، سطوح عدم اطمینان، تابع توزیع افراطی عمومی عمومی، فلات غاف،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
Engineering infrastructures such as stormwater drains and bridges are commonly designed using the concept of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation patterns and distributions are spatially similar within the drainage area and remain unchanged throughout the lifespan of the infrastructures (stationary). Based on the premise that climate change will alter the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation patterns, inaccuracy in the estimation of IDF curves may occur. As such, prior to developing IDF curves, it is crucial to analyse trends of annual precipitation maxima. The objective of this study was to estimate the precipitation intensities and their uncertainties (lower and upper limits) for durations of 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, and 6Â h and return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50 and 100Â years in the Ghaap plateau, Northern Cape Province, South Africa using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The annual precipitation maxima were extracted from long-term (1918-2014) precipitation data for four meteorological stations (Postmasburg, Douglas, Kuruman and Groblershoop) sourced from the South African Weather Services (SAWS). On average, the estimated extreme precipitation intensities for the plateau ranged from 4.2Â mm/h for 6Â h storm duration to 55.8Â mm/h for 0.125Â h at 2Â years return period. At 100Â year return period, the intensity ranged from 13.3Â mm/h for 6Â h duration to 175.5Â mm/h for the duration of 0.125Â h. The lower limit of uncertainty ranged from 11.7% at 2Â years return period to 26% at 100Â year return period, and from 12.8% to 58.4% for the upper limit for the respective return periods. This methodology can be integrated into policy formulation for the design of stormwater and flood management infrastructures in the Ghaap plateau, where mining is the main economic activity.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Climate Risk Management - Volume 16, 2017, Pages 1-9
Journal: Climate Risk Management - Volume 16, 2017, Pages 1-9
نویسندگان
C.M. Tfwala, L.D. van Rensburg, R. Schall, S.M. Mosia, P. Dlamini,