کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5118956 1485759 2016 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling African swine fever presence and reported abundance in the Russian Federation using national surveillance data from 2007 to 2014
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی حضور تب افی آفریقایی و گزارش فراوانی در فدراسیون روسیه با استفاده از داده های نظارت ملی از سال 2007 تا 2014
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم پزشکی و سلامت پزشکی و دندانپزشکی سیاست های بهداشت و سلامت عمومی
چکیده انگلیسی

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of swine that has been present in the Russian Federation since 2007. Counts of ASF outbreaks reported in the Southern regions of the country (2007-2014) were aggregated to a grid of hexagons, and a zero-inflated Poisson model accounting for spatial dependence between hexagons was used to identify factors associated with the presence of ASF outbreaks and factors associated with the number of ASF reports in affected hexagons. Increasing density of pigs raised on low biosecurity farms was found to be positively associated with the probability of occurrence of at least one ASF outbreak in a hexagon and with the average number of reported ASF outbreaks amongst affected hexagons. Increasing human population density and increasing distance from the closest diagnostic laboratory were additional variables associated with number of reported ASF outbreaks amongst affected hexagons. The model was shown to have good predictive ability.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology - Volume 19, November 2016, Pages 70-77
نویسندگان
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