On the use of a multi-criteria approach for reliability estimation in belief function theory

• We develop an approach to manage conflict and imperfection of expert judgments represented with belief functions.
• We assess expert reliability degrees (discount operators) based on multiple criteria using the PROMETHEE method.
• We discount and combine expert judgments.

Decision analysis models often require the assessments of uncertain events elicited from informed experts to support the decision-making process. Expert opinions are often polled but their fusion is frequently beset by a number of difficulties pertaining to conflict and imperfection. Decision makers need, therefore, to reconcile inconsistencies by fusing the information provided by multiple sources of expertise. To reduce conflict and manage imperfection, expert information, represented by belief functions, need to be discounted proportionally to the degree they contribute to the conflict and its imperfection. The present study proposes a novel approach for determining the discounting operator of the information provided by a set of experts based on multiple criteria using the PROMETHEE II method. Expert judgments are then discounted and combined. Simple numerical examples and Monte Carlo simulations, including tests and comparative analysis with current approaches in the literature, are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach.