Comparison and evaluation of newest failure rate prediction models: FIDES and RIAC 217Plus

The failure rate of an example avionics control unit with approximately 7000 electronic components is calculated with the latest state-of-the-art prediction models FIDES Guide 2004 and RIAC-Handbook-217Plus (2006). To allow comparison of the component prediction models a standard civil avionics profile was defined and used for both calculations. Results are compared supported by analysis of the influence of component and application specific parameters such as temperature, temperature cycles, humidity, and vibration. In addition predicted failure rates are compared to field data that has been collected for this unit during 15 years.