Comparison of energy intake prediction algorithms for systems powered by photovoltaic harvesters

Small size photovoltaic modules can harvest enough energy to power many personal devices and wireless sensor nodes. The prediction of solar energy intake is possible thanks to the periodical availability of the sunlight and its cyclic behavior. Thus, smart and innovative power management strategies can take advantage from intake prediction algorithms to optimize the energy usage by keeping the system in low power state as long as possible. On the other hand, very accurate predictions need time and energy because of complex calculations, thus an algorithm that can provide the optimal trade-off between computational effort and accuracy is a breakthrough for systems with tight power constraints. In this paper we introduce an innovative, efficient and reliable solar prediction algorithm, the weather conditioned moving average (WCMA). The algorithm has been further enhanced to increase performance using a phase displacement regulator (PDR) which reduces the average error to less than 9.2% at a minimum energy cost. The proposed new algorithm compares favorably with several competing approaches.