An evolutionary outlook of air traffic flow management techniques

In recent years Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) has become pertinent even in regions without sustained overload conditions caused by dense traffic operations. Increasing traffic volumes in the face of constrained resources has created peak congestion at specific locations and times in many areas of the world. Increased environmental awareness and economic drivers have combined to create a resurgent interest in ATFM as evidenced by a spate of recent ATFM conferences and workshops mediated by official bodies such as ICAO, IATA, CANSO the FAA and Eurocontrol. Significant ATFM acquisitions in the last 5 years include South Africa, Australia and India. Singapore, Thailand and Korea are all expected to procure ATFM systems within a year while China is expected to develop a bespoke system. Asia-Pacific nations are particularly pro-active given the traffic growth projections for the region (by 2050 half of all air traffic will be to, from or within the Asia-Pacific region). National authorities now have access to recently published international standards to guide the development of national and regional operational concepts for ATFM, geared to Communications, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management and Avionics (CNS+A) evolutions. This paper critically reviews the field to determine which ATFM research and development efforts hold the best promise for practical technological implementations, offering clear benefits both in terms of enhanced safety and efficiency in times of growing air traffic. An evolutionary approach is adopted starting from an ontology of current ATFM techniques and proceeding to identify the technological and regulatory evolutions required in the future CNS+A context, as the aviation industry moves forward with a clearer understanding of emerging operational needs, the geo-political realities of regional collaboration and the impending needs of global harmonisation.