Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach

A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and demographic structure, expenditures, cost of energy-saving measures, willingness to invest, and level of coordination in international climate policy). In our study, we introduce a multilevel cross-impact approach which allows for the definition and quantification of data for scenario analysis while taking the interdependences between different factors on the global, national and sectoral levels into account. This approach makes it possible to overcome limitations that conventional energy models are usually confronted with. By applying a trend analysis in combination with information on the interdependence of relevant factors on the global and national levels, consistent sectoral views of the private household's future are created.