کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5477933 | 1399247 | 2017 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل آماری برای پیش بینی قیمت اورانیوم برای ارزیابی هزینه های چرخه سوخت هسته ای
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی هسته ای و مهندسی
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Nuclear Engineering and Technology - Volume 49, Issue 5, August 2017, Pages 1063-1070
Journal: Nuclear Engineering and Technology - Volume 49, Issue 5, August 2017, Pages 1063-1070
نویسندگان
Sungki Kim, Wonil Ko, Hyoon Nam, Chulmin Kim, Yanghon Chung, Sungsig Bang,