Risk assessment in straw-based power generation public-private partnership projects in China: A fuzzy synthetic evaluation analysis

With the increasing requirement on energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection in China, the straw-based power generation is developing rapidly, which can not only provide clean energy, but also address the serious environmental problems caused by farmers' burning straw directly. Currently, the government is gradually applying Public-Private-Partnership model to this field making use of private sectors' capital and technological advantages. To assess the risks in public-private partnership straw-based power generation projects in China, 44 risk factors were identified and 19 critical risks factors (CRFs) were selected and classified into 4 groups (CRGs) based on a questionnaire survey in this paper. Then, the likelihood of occurrence (LO), magnitude of impact (MI), the integrated risk level (IRL) of each CRF, CRG and the overall risk were calculated through the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The CRF “government invention” was the most critical risk factor and the CRG “project participant risk” was the most critical risk factor group. Overall, the final fuzzy synthesis result indicated that the IRL of the public-private partnership straw-based power generation projects in China was high. Finally, some recommendations were given for each CRF. The evaluation index system, the multi-criteria fuzzy synthetic evaluation framework, the obtained conclusions and the risk response measures in this paper can help policy makers and project decision makers make appropriate decisions and allocate the limited resources to the risks worthy more attention. Simultaneously, this paper can provide a reference for the private sector to avoid too risky project and at the same time facilitate the public sector to take effective measures reducing project risks so as to attract more high-quality private capital. In addition, the risk assessment in public-private partnership straw-based power generation projects has not been discussed and paid enough attention yet. Thus, this study expands the knowledge and contributes to the literature.