Strategies for environmentally friendly development in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone based on scenario analysis

The Belt and Road, introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, promotes economic cooperation among countries around the world, from Asia to Europe to Africa. The Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone (NTMEZ) is the largest economic belt in China, with a focus on development in the Belt and Road. Environmentally friendly development in the NTMEZ has important managerial, policy and research implications for other areas of the Belt and Road. This study assesses the environmental performances of the leading industries based on emission and energy-consumption intensities, using intensity comparison coefficients, and analyzes four scenarios of development: maintaining the current status, industrial restructuring, technological innovation, and developing eco-industrial parks, in the NTMEZ. The expectation is to provide useful scientific strategies for environmentally friendly development in the NTMEZ. Results show that the petrochemical, metallurgical, and energy-production industries are the main sources of industrial atmospheric pollutants (together accounting for around 89% of such pollution in the NTMEZ), and that the petrochemical and food industries are the main sources of industrial water pollution (together accounting for around 90%). The air and water pollution intensities for these industries are all higher than their respective national industrial averages. Scenario analysis show that Scenario 1-with no changes or measures-increases chemical oxygen demand and sulfur dioxide emissions by 90.86% and 194.26% respectively by 2020, compared with 2014. Scenario 4, the eco-industrial park, reduces emissions significantly by 2020-to 8.39% for COD and 8.78% for SO2, respectively, compared with 2014. Finally, strategies for achieving environmentally friendly development in the NTMEZ are suggested, focusing on industrial restructuring, eco-industrial parks and circular development, technological innovation, and energy restructuring.