Mathematical modeling of Visceral Leishmaniasis and control strategies

In this article, the author studies the dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis disease to analyze the seasonal VL incidence data from South Sudan during the period January, 2011 to December, 2011. The seasonality is consolidated in the model as sandfly growing rate, which is presumed to be time periodic. The basic reproduction number (R0) has been derived and estimated. On the premise of statistical and epidemiological information of South Sudan, parameters in the model are estimated. The author discusses an optimal control strategy among the two preventive measures namely use of vaccination and possible treatment of infective humans. Numerical findings indicate that the mass treatment is not sufficient to control the outbreak of VL in the population, additional control programs (such as vaccination) with treatment are required to control the VL disease outbreak.