FEATURED PAPERSImpact of the 18th birthday on waitlist outcomes among young adults listed for heart transplant: A regression discontinuity analysis

BackgroundPatients listed for heart transplant after their 18th birthday purportedly wait longer to receive a donor heart compared with patients listed before their 18th birthday. It is unclear whether there is an actual difference in wait times and whether any difference in wait time is associated with lower likelihood of transplant and/or higher risk of mortality.MethodsOrgan procurement and transplant network data were used to identify all patients listed for heart transplant between 2006 and 2014 within a 1-year period before and after their 18th birthday. The primary study end-point was the waiting time to receive a donor heart. Secondary end-points included the probability of transplant and waitlist mortality. Regression discontinuity analysis was used to analyze the effect of age on either side of the sharp cut-off value of age 18 years (6,574 days of life), when allocation of donor hearts transitions from the pediatric to adult allocation system.ResultsA total of 360 patients met the study inclusion criteria, including 207 (57.5%) listed during the 12-month period before their 18th birthday under the pediatric allocation system, and 153 (42.5%) listed during the 12 months after their 18th birthday under the adult allocation system. The pediatric cohort was more likely to be listed Status 1A. Otherwise, the 2 groups shared similar baseline characteristics. Overall, patients listed after their 18th birthday waited 8.5 months longer to receive a transplant than adolescents listed before their 18th birthday (p = 0.01) and had a 47% lower probability of receiving a transplant (p = 0.001), but there was no difference in waitlist mortality (p = 0.37).ConclusionsPatients listed for heart transplant shortly after their 18th birthday have significantly longer wait-times compared with patients listed shortly before their 18th birthday and a lower probability of transplant, but no significant difference in waitlist mortality. For medically fragile adolescents at high risk of death, birth date may be a relevant factor in the timing of heart transplant listing.