Development of an integrated model for assessing the impact of diffuse and point source pollution on coastal waters

Pollution loads from land sources and their impact on the receiving waters can be predicted by using land-use and surface water quality models, respectively. In this paper details are given of the development of an integrated modelling system for managing water quality in coastal basins. The system includes a model linking the pollution input loads to land-use and a model for simulating surface flow and chemical and biological processes. The land-use model consists of two main components: a database and a model base. It uses a GIS system, namely ArcGIS, as the model platform. The database, built in the Geo-database format, includes six data sets containing information on social, economical, bathymetrical and hydrological aspects of a study area. The model base includes a series of transfer functions that link the pollution loads to key sources, including those from: industrial, domestic and agricultural inputs, and fish and animal farming. The water quality model is a numerical model which solves the governing equations representing the physical, chemical and biological processes in coastal waters. The modelling system was set up for Bohai Bay in China, with the land-use model being used to provide nutrient loadings from individual inputs and the water quality model used to predict the impact of these inputs on the receiving waters. Model simulations were also undertaken to predict the water quality conditions for various development and management scenarios.