Sustainability and greenhouse gases: What are the issues for New Zealand?

One of the real challenges for the scientific community in the next decade will be in the production and validation of atmospheric composition data, not to the normally accepted scientific criterion and standards but to and within a new legalistic framework. As the issues created by the implementation and application of the Kyoto Protocol come into force, the attribution of sources of greenhouse gases will become critical, as will indeed the proof of compliance with Kyoto Protocol conditions. This paper discusses some of the drivers of global change to set in context the changes that are occurring in the atmosphere and shows that although the term sustainability is often used implying some semi-equilibrium state, the atmosphere is unlikely to be in a quasi-equilibrium state over the next 200 years. Examples of the special problems faced by New Zealand are used to illustrate the complexity of this issue.