کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
568884 1452296 2014 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Comparing two sensitivity analysis approaches for two scenarios with a spatially explicit rural agent-based model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مقایسه دو رویکرد تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت برای دو سناریو با یک مدل مبتنی بر مفهوم روان شناختی روستایی
کلمات کلیدی
شبیه سازی اجتماعی، مدل مبتنی بر عامل، تجزیه و تحلیل میزان حساسیت، سیستم های پیچیده
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی


• Use of complementary sensitivity analysis methods provides additional insight in sensitivities.
• The one-at-a-time approach provides rapid insight into the importance of parameters.
• The Monte Carlo analysis reveals parameter interactions and nonlinearities.
• Parameter sensitivity of agent-based models can be different across different policy scenarios.
• Sensitivity analysis can be used to identify opportunities for policy leverage.

In this paper two sensitivity analysis approaches are applied for scenario analysis in a spatially explicit rural agent-based simulation. The simulation aims to assess the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of agricultural policy interventions, market dynamics and environmental change on a regional scale. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are investigated: i) a one-at-a-time approach where each parameter is varied one after the other, while all other parameters are kept at their nominal values; and ii) a procedure based on Monte Carlo sampling where random sets of input parameter values are related to outputs of the simulation. The complementarity of both approaches and their contribution to the overall interpretation of the model is shown in two scenarios simulating alternative European policy instruments for biodiversity conservation. Results show that a mixed approach of sensitivity analysis leads to a better understanding of the model's behaviour, and further enhances the description of the simulation's response to changes in inputs and parameter settings.

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ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 54, April 2014, Pages 196–210
نویسندگان
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