Model study of environmental concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay – development of a Windows® version prototype

This study develops a model that predicts environmental concentrations and ecosystem exposure to tributyltin (TBT), which is an organotin compound used as an antifouling agent on ship hulls. In addition, using existing data, an average calculation for Tokyo Bay over four seasons was carried out using a three-dimensional flow model and ecosystem model. The calculation results for each season is stored in a database, and then combined with the chemical substance fate prediction model for marine areas. This model can be adapted for operation in Windows® so that it is easy to use by other operators. Using the simple input of parameters, this prototype modeling system enabled detailed prediction of environmental concentrations and ecosystem exposure in a marine area. In the future, it will be possible to conduct a risk assessment of human exposure to TBT by improving the accuracy of parameters used in this modeling system.