Adaptive management of natural systems using fuzzy logic

Hypotheses about how management practices influence ecosystem services can be tested using a crisp, probability-based, or fuzzy decision rule. The correct decision rule depends on whether: (1) the observed state of an ecosystem service (x) is non-stochastic or stochastic; (2) the true state of the ecosystem service (y) is non-stochastic or stochastic; and (3) the relationship between x and y is deterministic, stochastic, or uncertain. Crisp and probability-based decision rules are not appropriate when the relationship between y and x is uncertain in the sense that the decision maker is unable or unwilling to specify conditional probabilities of y given x. Under these conditions, a fuzzy decision rule is appropriate. A hypothetical case study is used to illustrate how a fuzzy decision rule is used to test hypotheses about whether selective cutting of timber provides greater or less forest biodiversity than clearcutting of timber. The case study describes how to incorporate the decision rule in an active adaptive management framework to sequentially test the extent to which changes over time in other factors influencing ecosystem services, such as greater spread of invasive species due to global warming, alter the efficacy of timber management practices. The fuzzy adaptive management decision rule can be generalized to account for the effects of management practices on multiple ecosystem services.