Analysing the development of road safety using demographic data

► Time series analyses of road safety and risk can be improved by using demographic data. ► Distance travelled per person is often more smooth over time than total distance travelled for drivers of that age. ► This smoothness can be used to obtain forecasts of distance travelled and thus of road safety risk. ► This smoothness can be used to average out year-to-year fluctuations of data of distance travelled and risk. ► Fatalities forecasts with models including population data, with or without data of distance travelled, are alike.