کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5741432 1617121 2017 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Impact of rapid urban expansion on green space structure
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تأثیر گسترش سریع شهری در ساختار فضای سبز
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
چکیده انگلیسی


- An integrated Land Change Modeller (LCM)-Markov Chain model and spatial metrics might be an efficient model for simulating urban expansion.
- The model allows for a set of diagnostic tools to assess failure and successes in planning strategies.
- The master planning and future urban expansion has negative implications on green space structure in Kuala Lumpur, but not in Jakarta and Metro Manila.
- The spatial effect of rapid urban expansion on green space structure is influenced by the historical spatial changes, implementation of the previous master planning strategies and uncontrolled planning policies.

Rapid urban expansion has had a significant impact on green space structure. A wide variety of modelling approaches have been tested to simulate urban expansion; however, the effectiveness of simulations of the spatial structure of urban expansion remains unexplored. This study aims to model and predict urban expansion in three cities (Kuala Lumpur, Metro Manila and Jakarta), all experiencing rapid urban expansion, and to identify which are the main drivers, including spatial planning, in the resulting spatial patterns. Land Change Modeller (LCM)-Markov Chain models were used, parameterised on changes observed between 1988/1989 and 1999 and verified with the urban form observed for 2014. These models were then used to simulate urban expansion for the year 2030. The spatial structure of the simulated 2030 land use was then compared with the 2030 master plan for each city using spatial metrics. LCM-Markov Chain models proved to be a suitable method for simulating the development of future land use. There were also important differences in the projected spatial structure for 2030 when compared to the planned development in each city; substantive differences in the size, density, distance, shape and spatial pattern. Evidence suggests that these spatial patterns are influenced by the forms of rapid urban expansion experienced in these cities and respective master planning policies of the municipalities of the cities. The use of integrated simulation modelling and landscape ecology analytics supplies significant insights into the evolution of the spatial structure of urban expansion and identifies constraints and informs intervention for spatial planning and policies in cities.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ecological Indicators - Volume 81, October 2017, Pages 274-284
نویسندگان
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