Range shifts in response to climate change of Ophiocordyceps sinensis, a fungus endemic to the Tibetan Plateau

- Distribution range of O. sinensis was predicted to reduce.
- Distribution of O. sinensis will shift upward and toward the central part of the Tibetan Plateau.
- Modeling process predicted a net habitat loss of 4-19% in an unlimited dispersal scenario.
- A total of 36-39% of the habitat of O. sinensis would be lost in a non-dispersal scenario.

Recent climate change has been widely recognized to influence the distribution of many plants and animals, while its impacts on the distribution of fungi remain largely unknown. Here, we used Ophiocordyceps sinensis, an entomopathogenic fungus and important traditional Chinese medicine whose distribution range was reported as decreased on the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades, as an example to predict the current potential distribution and the possible range shifts in response to climate change of a fungus by using extensive field records and an ensemble species distribution modeling method. It is demonstrated that the distribution range of the fungus wound decrease significantly, shifting upward in altitude and toward the central part of the Plateau. In an unlimited dispersal scenario, net habitat losses of 19% for both years 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and of 8% and 4% under RCP8.5 for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively, were predicted. If a non-dispersal scenario was considered, 36-39% of the current habitats would be lost in the future. The results presented here will not only provide useful information for the conservation of O. sinensis, but also provide a representative case of evaluating impacts of climate change on fungal distribution using species distribution modeling method.

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