Trend analysis of CO2 and CH4 recorded at a semi-natural site in the northern plateau of the Iberian Peninsula

- Four procedures were used to obtain the CO2 and CH4 trend and seasonal behaviour.
- A time-dependent amplitude was considered in the harmonic equation.
- Similar trends were obtained with the methods employed.
- Kernel regression stands out among the nonparametric procedures used.

CO2 and CH4 were recorded from October 2010 to February 2016 with a Picarro G1301 analyser at the centre of the upper plateau of the Iberian Peninsula. Large CO2 values were observed during the vegetation growing season, and were reinforced by the stable boundary layer during the night. Annual CH4 evolution may be explained by ecosystem activity and by the dispersion linked with the evolution of the boundary layer. Their trends were studied using an equation that considers one polynomial and one harmonic part. The polynomial part revealed an increasing trend from 0.8 to 2.3 ppm year−1 for CO2 and from 0.004 to 0.011 ppm year−1 for CH4. The harmonic part considered four harmonics whose amplitudes were noticeable for the first and second harmonics for CO2 and for the first harmonic for CH4. Long-term evolution was similar with alternative equations. Finally, seasonal study indicated summer minima for both gases, which may be explained by the lack of vegetation in this season. Harmonic analysis showed two maxima for CO2, one in spring linked with vegetation growth, which decreased with time, and another in autumn related with the onset of plant activity after the summer, which increased with time. CH4 presented only one maximum in winter and a short time with steady concentration in spring where the evolution of the boundary layer may play a noticeable role. The harmonic equation, which takes into account all the observations, revealed opposite behaviour between CO2, whose minima decreased, and CH4, whose maxima increased.