Reforestation and land use change as drivers for a decrease of avalanche damage in mid-latitude mountains (NW Spain)

Natural conditions that explain the triggering of snow avalanches are becoming better-known, but our understanding of how socio-environmental changes can influence the occurrence of damaging avalanches is still limited. This study analyses the evolution of snow avalanche damage in the Asturian Massif (NW Spain) between 1800 and 2015, paying special attention to changes in land-use and land-cover patterns. A damage index has been performed using historical sources, photointerpretation and fieldwork-based data, which were introduced in a GIS and processed by means of statistical analysis. Mapping allowed connecting spatiotemporal variations of damage and changes in human-environment interactions. The total number of victims was 342 (192 dead and 150 injured). Results show stability in the number of avalanches during the study period, but a progressive decrease in the damage per avalanche. Changes in land use explain the evolution of damage and its spatial/temporal behaviour. The role played by vegetation cover is at the root of this process: damage was the highest during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when a massive deforestation process affected the protective forest. This deforestation was the result of demographic growth and intensive grazing, disentailment laws and emerging coal mining. Since the mid-20th century, the transformation of a traditional land-management system based on overexploitation into a system based on land marginalization and reforestation, together with the decline of deforestation due to industrial and legal causes, resulted in the decrease of avalanches that affected settlements (mostly those released below the potential timberline). The decrease of damage has been sharper in the western sector of the Asturian Massif, where oak deforestation was very intense in the past and where lithology allows for a more successful ecological succession at present. Taking into account that reforestation can be observed in mountain environments of developed countries worldwide, and considering present initiatives conducted to counteract its negative cultural effects by means of grazing and clearing operations, planning is imperative, and this research provides useful information for environmental management policies and risk mitigation in avalanche prone areas.