کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
5755386 1621631 2017 13 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
کاهش منطقه ای خشکسالی های مدیترانه در شرایط آب و هوایی آینده و آینده
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
سفارش ترجمه تخصصی
با تضمین قیمت و کیفیت
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
The complexity of the Mediterranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately October to April and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the Mediterranean area to droughts. In the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears to be enhanced in the Mediterranean area due to temperature increases combined with precipitation decreases. This general change towards warmer and dryer conditions is expected to continue in the future. In the present study droughts are represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at 114 stations located across the Mediterranean area. The SPI is a normalized measure of drought severity relative to a specific location, obtained from rainfall totals aggregated over different time periods. This allows a comparison of different locations and the delineation of homogeneous regions with similar SPI variability. 13 regions have been identified. A downscaling approach using circulation types based on geopotential heights and relative humidity as predictors has been set up to downscale the SPI time series in the different regions. The downscaling approach has been validated using running 21 years validation periods, in order to assess the skill of the method during different climatic conditions and to detect possible non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships. Results show that the downscaling method provided satisfactory results, except for the most arid regions. Future projections, provided from a three member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model under scenario RCP 8.5, indicate an increase in the drought severity and occurrence for the whole Mediterranean region for the period 2070-2100.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global and Planetary Change - Volume 151, April 2017, Pages 36-48
نویسندگان
, ,
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
سفارش ترجمه تخصصی
با تضمین قیمت و کیفیت