The seasonal march of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean and its El Niño variability

Based on two modern data sets, the climatological seasonal march of the upper-ocean is examined in the equatorial Pacific for the period 2004-2014, because of its large contribution to the total variance, its relationship to El Niño, and its unique equatorial wave phenomena. Argo provides a broadscale view of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean based on subsurface temperature and salinity measurements for the period 2004-2015, and satellite altimetry provides synoptic observations of the sea surface height (SSH) for the period 1993-2015. Using either 11-year (1993-2003/2004-2014) time-series for averaging, the seasonal Rossby waves stands out clearly and eastward intraseasonal Kelvin wave propagation is strong enough in individual years to leave residuals in the 11-year averages, particularly but not exclusively, during El Niño onset years. The agreement of altimetric SSH minus Argo steric height (SH) residuals with GRACE ocean mass estimates confirms the scale-matching of in situ variability with that of satellite observations. Surface layer and subsurface thermohaline variations are both important in determining SH and SSH basin-wide patterns. The SH/SSH October-November maximum in the central-eastern Pacific is primarily due to a downward deflection of the thermocline (∼20 m), causing a warm subsurface anomaly (>1 °C), in response to the phasing of downwelling intraseasonal Kelvin and seasonal Rossby waves. Compared with the climatology, the stronger October-November maximum in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites is due to higher intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability. Associated with these equatorial wave patterns along the thermocline, the western warm/fresh pool waters move zonally at interannual timescales through zonal wind stress and pressure gradient fluctuations, and cause substantial fresh (up to 0.6 psu) and warm (∼1 °C higher than the climatology) anomalies in the western-central Pacific surface-layer during the El Niño onset year, and of the opposite sign during the termination year. These El Niño-related patterns are then analyzed focusing on the case of the onset of the strong 2015/2016 episode, and are seen to be around two times larger than that in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites. The present work exploits the capabilities of Argo and altimetry to update and improve the description of the physical state of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean, and provides a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of models in representing equatorial Pacific variability.