Unusually deep Bonin earthquake of 30 May 2015: A precursory signal to slab penetration?

An M7.9 earthquake occurred on 30 May 2015 at an unusual depth of 680 km downward and away from the well-defined Wadati-Benioff (WB) zone of the southern Bonin arc. To the north (northern Bonin), the subducted slab is stagnant above the upper-lower mantle boundary at 660-km depth, where the WB zone bends forward to sub-horizontal. To the south (northern Mariana), it penetrates the boundary, where the WB zone extends near-vertically down to the boundary. Thus, the southern Bonin slab can be regarded as being in a transitional state from slab stagnation to penetration. The transition is shown to happen rapidly within the northern half of the southern Bonin slab where the heel part of the shoe-like configured stagnant slab hits the significantly depressed 660-km discontinuity. The mainshock and aftershocks took place in this heel part where they are sub-vertically aligned in approximate parallel to their maximum compressional axes. Here, the dips of the compressional axes of WB zone earthquakes change rapidly across the thickness of the slab from the eastern to western side and along the strike of the slab from the northern to southern side, suggesting rapid switching of the downdip compression axis in the shoe-shaped slab. Elastic deformation associated with the WB zone seismicity is calculated by viewing it as an integral part of the slab deformation process. With this deformation, the heel part is deepened relative to the arch part and is compressed sub-vertically and stretched sub-horizontally, a tendency consistent with the idea of progressive decent of the heel part in which near-vertical compressional stress is progressively accumulated to generate isolated shocks like the 2015 event and eventually to initiate slab penetration.