Mathematical model of the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Japan and evaluation of control measures

As additional options, preemptive culling could halt the epidemic more effectively. However, the preemptive culling scenario required substantial resources for culling operations. The 1-km preemptive scenario involved more than 50 farms remaining to be culled per day. Therefore, preemptive culling scenarios accompanied some difficulties in maintaining a sufficient capacity for culling in the affected area. A 10-km vaccination 7 days after the first detection of the disease demonstrated the potential to contain the epidemic to a small scale, while implementation of a 3-km vaccination on the same day could not effectively reduce epidemic size. In vaccination scenarios, the total number of farms that were either culled or vaccinated exceeded that of the baseline model. Vaccination scenarios therefore posed a problem of appropriate management of many vaccinated animals, whether these vaccinated animals would be culled or not. The present FMD transmission model developed using the 2010 FMD epidemic data in Japan provides useful information for consideration of suitable control strategies against FMD.