کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5794288 | 1554210 | 2009 | 5 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Updated prediction for the BSE epidemic in dairy cattle in Japan
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم دامی و جانورشناسی
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چکیده انگلیسی
Following the detection of the first case of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan in September 2001, nine million cattle were tested for BSE up to the end of 2008. As a result, a further 28 cases were detected in dairy cattle. Using the mathematical model previously developed and surveillance data up to the end of 2008, we estimated the prevalence of BSE-infected animals within each birth cohort for the years 1995-2001. We predicted historic and future trends in the number of BSE-infected animals to be culled and anticipated BSE cases from each birth cohort. The results indicate that more infected animals (428 (95% CI: 59-727)) than previously estimated would have been culled from 1995 to 2001, and more cases (53 (95% CI: 25-101)) than previously predicted would have been detected during this period with a higher peak in 2001, if a BSE surveillance program as comprehensive as the present one was applied. In and after 2009, 0-2 cases of BSE would likely to be detected. As previously predicted, the BSE epidemic should be eradicated by 2012.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 89, Issues 3â4, 1 June 2009, Pages 272-276
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 89, Issues 3â4, 1 June 2009, Pages 272-276
نویسندگان
Katsuaki Sugiura, Eisaku Kikuchi, Takashi Onodera,