Risk evaluation for city gas transmission and distribution system based on information revision

• A risk factor probability evaluation model considering historical data and experts' analysis was presented.
• The subjective weights and objective weights were obtained by entropy method and probability method, respectively.
• A risk assessment approach based on information revision for gas network was proposed.

The routine method using statistical analysis theory with enough historical data to predict risk factor probability (index failure probability) has defects, as historical data, especially the ones that far away from today, often can not precisely reflect the current situation of the gas network. Therefore, the risk factor probability should be predicted or evaluated by rational using the historical data and combining with the current situation. This paper presented a risk factor probability comprehensive evaluation model which considers historical data as well as the experts' analysis of the object system in recent years, namely, the risk factor probability evaluation model based on information revision, and employed for risk evaluation of the city gas transmission and distribution system with a case study.