African genetic ancestry is associated with a protective effect on Dengue severity in colombian populations

- African genetic ancestry showed a protective effect on Dengue severity in Colombia.
- Genetic ancestry estimates must be included as a covariate in association studies.
- We propose a statistical model for severe symptoms prediction in Colombia.
- We demonstrate the potential of admixed populations for infectious diseases studies.

The wide variation in severity displayed during Dengue Virus (DENV) infection may be influenced by host susceptibility. In several epidemiological approaches, differences in disease outcomes have been found between some ethnic groups, suggesting that human genetic background has an important role in disease severity. In the Caribbean, It has been reported that populations of African descent present considerable less frequency of severe forms compared with Mestizo and White self-reported groups. Admixed populations offer advantages for genetic epidemiology studies due to variation and distribution of alleles, such as those involved in disease susceptibility, as well to provide explanations of individual variability in clinical outcomes. The current study analysed three Colombian populations, which like most of Latin American populations, are made up of the product of complex admixture processes between European, Native American and African ancestors; having as a main goal to assess the effect of genetic ancestry, estimated with 30 Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs), on DENV infection severity. We found that African ancestry has a protective effect against severe outcomes under several systems of clinical classification: Severe Dengue (OR: 0.963 for every 1% increase in African ancestry, 95% confidence interval (0.934-0.993), p-value: 0.016), Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (OR: 0.969, 95% CI (0.947-0.991), p-value: 0.006), and occurrence of haemorrhages (OR: 0.971, 95% CI (0.952-0.989), p-value: 0.002). Conversely, decrease from 100% to 0% African ancestry significantly increases the chance of severe outcomes: OR is 44-fold for Severe Dengue, 24-fold for Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever, and 20-fold for occurrence of haemorrhages. Furthermore, several warning signs also showed statistically significant association given more evidences in specific stages of DENV infection. These results provide consistent evidence in order to infer statistical models providing a framework for future genetic epidemiology and clinical studies.