Impact of Race, Ethnicity, and Multimodality Biomarkers on the Incidence of New-Onset Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a prevalent condition with no established prevention or treatment strategies. Furthermore, the pathophysiology and predisposing risk factors for HFpEF are incompletely understood. Therefore, we sought to characterize the incidence and determinants of HFpEF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Our study included 6,781 MESA participants (White, Black, Chinese, and Hispanic men and women age 45 to 84 years, free of baseline cardiovascular disease). The primary end point was time to diagnosis of HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥45%). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to identify predictors of HFpEF. Over median follow-up of 11.2 years (10.6 to 11.7), 111 subjects developed HFpEF (cumulative incidence 1.7%). Incidence rates were similar across all races/ethnicities. Age (HR 2.3 [1.7 to 3.0]), hypertension (HR 1.8 [1.1 to 2.9]), diabetes (HR 2.3 [1.5 to 3.7]), body mass index (HR 1.4 [1.1 to 1.7]), left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiography (HR 4.3 [1.7 to 11.0]), interim myocardial infarction (HR 4.8 [2.7 to 8.6]), elevated N-terminal of the prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (HR 2.4 [1.5 to 4.0]), detectable troponin T (HR 4.5 [1.9 to 10.9]), and left ventricular mass index by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; 1.3 [1.0 to 1.6]) were significant predictors of incident HFpEF. Worsening renal function, inflammatory markers, and coronary artery calcium were significant univariate but not multivariate predictors of HFpEF. Gender was neither a univariate nor multivariate predictor of HFpEF. In conclusion, we demonstrate several risk factors and biomarkers associated with incident HFpEF that were consistent across different racial/ethnic groups and may represent potential therapeutic targets for the prevention and treatment of HFpEF.