Predictors of recurrence and disease-free survival in patients with completely resected esophageal carcinoma

ObjectiveThe goal of this study was to analyze factors predictive of recurrence and disease-free survival in patients with completely resected esophageal carcinoma.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective review of a prospective database to identify patients with completely resected esophageal carcinoma. Medical records were reviewed. Recurrence rates, time to recurrence, and disease-free survival were analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for time to event estimation, and multivariate Cox regression models were constructed to analyze factors thought to be significant in determining both freedom from recurrence and disease-free survival.ResultsFrom 1988 to 2009, 465 of 500 patients underwent complete resection for esophageal carcinoma. Median follow-up for living patients was 49 months; 197 patients (42.4%) had recurrence, leading to 175 patients dying of cancer and 22 patients living with recurrent disease. Multivariate regression adjusted for P stage identified the following variables as independent predictors of freedom from recurrence: performance status greater than 0 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.84; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.35-2.49]; P < .001), poor differentiation (HR, 1.50; CI, 1.12-2.01; P = .006), induction therapy (HR, 1.65; CI, 1.21-2.25]; P = .002), en bloc resection (HR, 0.61; CI, 0.43-0.88; P = .007), and advanced pathologic stages (II/III/IV) (HR, 5.46; CI, 3.05-9.78; P < .001). Independent predictors of disease-free survival adjusted for P stage were performance status greater than 0 (HR, 1.73; CI, 1.34-2.23; P < .001), en bloc resection (HR, 0.63; CI, 0.47-0.84; P = .002), induction therapy (HR, 1.34; CI, 1.02-1.76; P = .033), and advanced pathologic stages (II/III/IV) (HR, 3.16; CI, 2.15-4.65; P < .001).ConclusionsFor patients with completely resected esophageal cancer, independent predictors of improved freedom from recurrence and disease-free survival include good performance status, en bloc resection, and early pathologic stage.