Prediction of individual season of birth using MRI

Previous research suggests statistical associations between season of birth (SOB) with prevalence of neurobehavioral disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, personality traits such as novelty and sensation seeking, and suicidal behavior. These effects are thought to be mediated by seasonal differences in perinatal photoperiod, which was recently shown to imprint circadian clock neurons and behavior in rodents. However, it is unknown whether SOB is associated with any measurable differences in the normal human adult brain, and whether individual SOB can be deduced based on phenotype. Here I show that SOB predicts morphological differences in brain structure, and that MRI scans carry spatially distributed information allowing significantly above chance prediction of an individual's SOB. Using an open source database of over 550 structural brain scans, Voxel-Based Morphometry (VBM) analysis showed a significant SOB effect in the left superior temporal gyrus (STG) in males (p = 0.009, FWE whole-brain corrected), with greater gray matter volumes in fall and winter births. A cosinor analysis revealed a significant annual periodicity in the left STG gray matter volume (Zero Amplitude Test: p < 5 × 10− 7), with a peak towards the end of December and a nadir towards the end of June, suggesting that perinatal photoperiod accounts for this SOB effect. Whole-brain VBM maps were used as input features to multivariate machine-learning based analyses to classify SOB. Significantly greater than chance prediction was achieved in females (overall accuracy 35%, p < 0.001), but not in males (overall accuracy 26%, p = 0.45). Pairwise binary classification in females revealed that the highest discrimination was obtained for winter vs. summer classification (peak area under the ROC curve = 0.71, p < 0.0005). Discriminating regions included fusiform and middle temporal gyrus, inferior and superior parietal lobe, cerebellum, and dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Results indicate that SOB is detectable with MRI, imply that SOB exerts effects on the developing human brain that persist through adulthood, and suggest that neuroimaging may be a valuable intermediate phenotype in bridging the gap between SOB and personality and neurobehavioral disorders.