Long-term trends in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and the influence of cardiovascular risk factors in Norway

Surveillance of chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence over time and information on how changing risk factors influence this trend are needed to evaluate the effects of general practice and public health interventions. Because very few studies addressed this, we studied the total adult population of a demographically stable county representative of Norway using cross-sectional studies 10 years apart (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)2 and Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)3, 65,237 and 50,586 participants, respectively). Thorough quality-control procedures and comparisons of methods over time excluded analytical drift, and multiple imputations of missing data combined with nonattendance weights contributed to unbiased estimates. CKD prevalence remained stable in Norway from 1995 through 1997 (11.3%) to 2006 through 2008 (11.1%). The association of survey period with CKD prevalence was modified by a strong decrease in blood pressure, more physical activity, and lower cholesterol levels. Without these improvements, a 2.8, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points higher CKD prevalence could have been expected, respectively. In contrast, the prevalence of diabetes and obesity increased moderately, but the proportion of diabetic patients with CKD decreased significantly (from 33.4% to 28.6%). A CKD prevalence of 1 percentage point lower would have been expected without these changes. Thus, CKD prevalence remained stable in Norway for more than a decade in association with marked improvements in blood pressure, lipid levels, and physical activity and despite modest increases in diabetes and obesity.