کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
621317 | 882547 | 2014 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Correlating the chemical engineering plant cost index with macro-economic indicators
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
همبستگی شاخص هزینه کارخانه های شیمیایی با شاخص های کلان اقتصادی
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کلمات کلیدی
شاخص هزینه کارخانه شیمیایی، برآورد هزینه سرمایه، قیمت نفت، نرخ بهره، تورم، پیش بینی قیمت بوته،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی شیمی
تصفیه و جداسازی
چکیده انگلیسی
CEPCI(n)=0.135ÃCEPCI(k0)ÃexpAÃâk=konik+BÃPoil+C, with k0 the first year of the period under consideration, ik the interest rate on US bank prime loans in year k, and Poil the US domestic oil price in year n. Best fit was obtained when choosing distinct sets of values of the constants A, B and C for each of the three periods 1958 to 1980; 1981 to 1999; and 2000 to 2011. These changes could have resulted from the impact of the oil shocks in the 1970s and very high interest rates in the 1980s, which perhaps heralded changes to the index formula in 1982 and 2002. The error was within 3% in any year from 1958 to 2011, and within 1% from 2004 to 2011 after readjusting the weighting of the price of oil. The correlation was applied to forecast the CEPCI under different scenarios modelled by the Energy Information Administration or predicted from oil futures contracts.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Chemical Engineering Research and Design - Volume 92, Issue 2, February 2014, Pages 285-294
Journal: Chemical Engineering Research and Design - Volume 92, Issue 2, February 2014, Pages 285-294
نویسندگان
Dimitri Mignard,