A novel approach for assessing factors affecting biodiversity based on networks analysis

We propose in this work a novel approach aiming at assessing cause and effect relationships between variables that can affect target biodiversity issues. These cause-effect relations are used to build a network whose nodes represent variables linked by directed arcs. The arcs have associated a value that represents trends of cause-effect relations. An important novelty of this approach is the use of product and addition operations between trends of cause-effect relations for assessing factors that can affect target variables. For the analysis of the network we use the concept of paths. Paths are defined as sequences of cause-effect relations from source variables to target variables. For example, the path from population increment that causes effects on the increment of transport routes, which in turn causes effects on the loss of vegetation cover. This approach was applied to the assessment of vegetation cover in the Morelos State, México during the period 2000-2010. The results show a promising practical alternative to assess the potential effects on biodiversity issues based on the analysis of the paths represented in the network.