Multi-indicator sensitivity analysis of climate change effects on landscapes in the Kiskunság National Park, Hungary

- Sensitivity analysis was linked using landscape indicators with a climate change scenario.
- The most sensitive landscape types were differentiated by the multi-layered approach.
- Drought analysis was linked with landscape indicator assessment methodologies.
- Management implications were suggested for nature conservation.

A multi-indicator approach assessing sensitivity to drought within different landscape types was explored within the Kiskunság National Park (Hungary) and its surrounding landscapes. The National Park preserves alkaline lakes, sand dunes, wetlands, dry steppes and forests, surrounded by a matrix of intensively used agricultural land and forests. The investigated indicators rely to soil moisture regime, changes in groundwater resources, biomass production of vegetation and wind erosion hazard. The study also estimated future drought hazard as an indicator of climate change (CC) by REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulations applying two future time periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). Overlaying analysis of future CC scenarios and the multi-indicator assessment indicates increasing drought hazards over the whole area investigated, with landscapes in the northern part of the territory relatively more exposed. On the basis of the calculated indicators, the most sensitive areas were identified as being located in the areas of highest altitude and within the sandy area/alluvial plain transitional zone, which are mostly wetland and sand-dune regions. Results indicate that conservation management should especially focus on the northern part of the Kiskunság as an area most at risk of increasing drought. The outcomes of this research demonstrate the utility of a dynamic, multi-indicator landscape sensitivity approach to developing strategies to adapt on the multilayered and complex effects of CC on nature conservation practice.