How to achieve the 2020 and 2030 emissions targets of China: Evidence from high, mid and low energy-consumption industrial sub-sectors

Facing the challenge of meeting emissions reduction targets of China, this paper employed the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to study the changes of energy-related carbon emissions in high energy-consumption sectors (HES), mid energy-consumption sectors (MES) and low energy-consumption sectors (LES) from 1996 to 2012. The decomposition results revealed that the economic growth was the most significant factor to increase carbon emissions of three subgroups while the decrease in energy intensity was the dominant factor to reduce carbon emissions of MES and LES. Considering the important roles economic growth and energy intensity played in carbon emissions, three scenarios were set based on the different growth rates of these two factors to identify whether the emissions reduction targets of 40-45% in 2020 and 60-65% in 2030 can be achieved using the co-integration technique. It was indicated that the emissions targets both in 2020 and 2030 can be achieved by LES in the base scenario. In stark contrast to LES, the carbon intensity of HES reduced only 10.03% in 2020 and 14% in 2030 compared to the 2005 level. Therefore, more attentions should be focused on the economic activity and energy intensity of HES. Finally, according to the results obtained, policy implications were provided to further mitigate the carbon intensity of China's industrial sector.