Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from varied continents and countries in the future.