China's CO2 emissions estimated from the bottom up: Recent trends, spatial distributions, and quantification of uncertainties

► A database of CO2 emission factors specific to China is established by sector. ► China's CO2 emissions are estimated based on a bottom-up method for 2005-2009. ► The uncertainty of China's CO2 emissions is quantified with Monte-Carlo simulation. ► Improved energy efficiency slows the increase of CO2 emissions for certain sectors.