کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
6348178 1621659 2014 8 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Sharper detection of winter temperature changes in the Romanian higher-elevations
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تشخیص واضح تر از تغییر دما در زمستان در ارتفاعات رومانیایی بیشتر است
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی


- Change points exist in the mid '70s for winter temperatures.
- The winter temperatures increase both before and after the change point.
- The increasing trend is stronger before the change point and milder afterward.
- Winter temperature is described by juxtaposing EA-WR, SCAND, and POL.

This paper investigates winter temperature trends in the Romanian higher-altitude areas, for three types of topographies: depression, slope and summit. The main challenge is that some winter temperature trends, by comparison with the other seasons, are milder and harder to detect. We used a change-point regression model with statistically dependent errors and compared it with a standard change-point model with independent errors. Statistical theory ensures that the former model gives a more accurate trend analysis than the latter. The model with statistically dependent errors detects change-points in the mid 70s and statistically significant increasing trends both before and after the change-point. On the other hand, the model with independent errors does not detect statistically significant increasing trends after the change-points for the winter series. These general results occur for all topography types. A separate multiple regression model reveals that the winter temperature trend changes in the Romanian higher-elevations can be described by a linear additive effect of several global atmospheric circulation patterns.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global and Planetary Change - Volume 122, November 2014, Pages 122-129
نویسندگان
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