Decadal variability of net water flux at the Mediterranean Sea Gibraltar Strait

► We combine multiple observational data and regional model simulation. ► Net water flux at Gibraltar increases over 1970-2009 (0.8 +/− 0.2 mm/mo per year). ► Decadal variations in net evaporation at sea-surface drive changes in net inflow. ► Seawater mass changes are small compared to changes in fresh water at sea surface. ► AMO and NAO influence the net water flux at Gibraltar indirectly via water fluxes.