Analysis on spatio-temporal trends and drivers in vegetation growth during recent decades in Xinjiang, China

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the terrestrial carbon balance and the climate system, and also overwhelmingly dominates the provisioning of ecosystem services. In this study, a non-stationary 1982-2012 AVHRR NDVI3g time series, the newest dataset, were used to evaluate spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation changes in Xinjiang province of China at regional, biome and pixel scales over progressively longer periods from 18 to 31 years, starting in 1982, and their linkages to climatic factors and human activities were analyzed. At regional scale, the increases were statistically significant for autumn NDVI during fourteen periods, for growing season and summer NDVI during the most periods, and for spring only during the first four periods. The rates of NDVI increase in growing season and all seasons significantly decreased over fourteen periods. At pixel scale, areas with significant browning rapidly increased over fourteen periods for growing season and all seasons, and these areas were mainly concentrated in northern desert of Xinjiang. Vegetation growth in Xinjiang was regulated by both moisture and thermal conditions: the response of NDVI in spring and autumn was more sensitive to thermal factors, such as temperature and potential evapotranspiration, and correlations between NDVI and precipitation and between NDVI and humidity index were stronger in summer and growing season. Extensive use of fertilizers and expanded farmland irrigated area increased vegetation growth for cropland. However, the rapid increase in the proportion of cotton cultivation and use of drip irrigation may reduce spring NDVI in the part of farmlands. Trend analysis during the multiple nested time series may contribute to a better and deep understanding of NDVI dynamic and foreseeing changes in the future. Accordingly, NDVI in Xinjiang will continuously increase at regional scale and the areas showing significant browning will also furthermore grow.